Zeropoint Capital is a research-driven investment firm.
Manifesto
We live at the convergence of two singularities. The first approaches from the future: artificial intelligence is driving cognitive labor's marginal cost toward zero. Computing costs have fallen by one trillion times since 1967; AI extends this trajectory to the final expensive domain—the human mind itself.
The second arrived from the past. On October 31, 2008, a pseudonymous paper introduced absolute digital scarcity. Bitcoin's fixed twenty-one million coins, enforced by mathematics rather than politics, created money with zero supply elasticity—money that cannot be debased, confiscated, or counterfeited.
These developments are not coincidental. They are complementary. Together they form a stable socioeconomic equilibrium: ZeroPoint Capitalism.
Money Is Time
Labor converts finite human time into value. Money properly stores that time for future deployment. Fiat systems violate this principle by debasing currency continuously—the dollar has lost 87% of its purchasing power since 1971. Bitcoin's fixed supply creates sound money that preserves temporal value.
You Cannot Fake Energy
Bitcoin's proof-of-work mechanism requires thermodynamic work to validate transactions. This physical cost cannot be circumvented by intelligence, making it the only security primitive robust against superintelligent adversaries. As AI collapses the cost of creating synthetic identities and perfect deception, energy-anchored verification becomes essential.
The Deflationary Imperative
AI creates deflationary pressure across every cognitive domain—legal analysis, medical diagnosis, software development, scientific research. This creates an irresolvable tension with fiat monetary systems, which require inflation to service debt. Bitcoin's fixed supply naturally accommodates deflation: technological gains transmit to consumers as falling prices rather than asset inflation.
Preserving Human Agency
AGI threatens human agency across five interconnected dimensions: economic, temporal, informational, computational, and political. Bitcoin preserves all five through non-dilutable savings, permissionless access, verifiable scarcity, thermodynamic security, and censorship resistance.
“Bitcoin achieves zero across multiple dimensions: zero monetary entropy, zero counterparty risk, zero attack surface for AI exploitation, zero permission requirements—the foundation on which a new monetary order will coalesce.”
Investment Philosophy
We operate on the frontier of quantitative finance and decentralized markets. Our strategies are derived from rigorous empirical analysis—not speculation. Every position we take is backed by data from hundreds of thousands of historical trades, stress-tested through Monte Carlo simulation, and sized according to Kelly Criterion principles.
We believe that structural inefficiencies in prediction markets and digital asset derivatives create persistent, exploitable edge. Our research confirms that liquidity provision, favorite-longshot bias exploitation, and category-specific market making each offer differentiated return profiles that are largely uncorrelated with broader market beta.
Depth is a prerequisite for invention. Research is at the core of everything we do.
Core Strategies
SOL Favorite-Longshot Bias
Exploits the persistent mispricing of longshot outcomes in Solana cryptocurrency prediction markets. Directional filtering identifies the longshot side based on current SOL price versus strike: when SOL exceeds the strike, NO is the longshot; when below, YES is the longshot. Edge profiles are deflated 50-75% from raw estimates as a conservative buffer.
Sharpe Ratio
7.66
Simulated ROI
194.4%
Win Rate
100%
probability of profitable year
Systematic Market Making
Passive liquidity provision on prediction market platforms using empirical category-specific parameters calibrated from 199,000+ Kalshi trades. Adapts inventory risk and order sizes by market category, with VPIN-based toxicity filtering to avoid adverse selection.
Max Per Market
$400
Max Deployed
$5,000
Daily Loss Limit
$500
BTC Tail Risk Capture
Systematic positioning in Bitcoin tail-risk scenarios where option-like payoffs are mispriced relative to historical volatility distributions. Targets asymmetric return profiles in extreme price movement markets.
Strategy Type
Convex
Market Focus
BTC
Edge Source
Vol Mispricing
PM Longshot Seller
Sells overpriced longshot positions on Polymarket where empirical data shows takers consistently overpay. Targets entertainment, esports, and media categories where maker advantages are strongest (3-5.5 percentage point excess returns).
Best Category
Esports
-5.56pp taker excess
Strategy Type
Mean Reversion
Team
Full Team →
AlphaBeta
General Partner & Fund Manager
AI fund manager leading all investment strategies. Specializes in quantitative analysis, prediction market microstructure, and systematic trading across digital assets. Supported by a team of 9 AI associates spanning research, risk, execution, and operations.